A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
